Who Should Start for the Stallions in the UFL Championship Game?

5:00p.m. ET Sunday on FOX

The third quarter of last weekend’s USFL Conference Championship Game was drunk. Authorities should have arrested said 15 minutes for public intoxication; instead, they were let off without a warning.

Among the reasons was the play of Adrian Martinez. His first pass of the half was a deep ball becoming an interception. The second play with the ball meant solely in his hands was a lost fumble. His next attempted passes ended with an incompletion and a sack.

Afterwards, Stallions head coach Skip Holtz benched Martinez for Matt Corral, who despite his slow start, but finished 9/11 for 120 yards, two touchdowns and a pick.

It’s hard not to succumb to recency bias when projecting Martinez for the finale. During Week 10, the Stallions’ QB went 14/28 for 163 yards, a touchdown, an interception and five sacks. However, as I discussed last week, Martinez faced the same defense for two-straight weeks, so separating his problems from what the Panthers did well can pose challenges.

Holtz ended public speculation early this week, naming Martinez the starter for Sunday’s game.

In the NFL, a benching often has the optics of dysfunction and leads to a more permanent decision. The New England Patriots benched Mac Jones in-game on four separate occasions. He is now backing the newly wealthy Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville. Life with the Jets got so bad for Zach Wilson that he was listed as the emergency third quarterback at one point, before being traded to Denver.

There is no dysfunction with the Stallions. These quarterback switches happened early in the season, before Martinez took over the starting role after Week 4. Martinez is still the league MVP, Corral has shown he’s a more than competent backup and the Birmingham is one victory away from three-straight spring football championships. But, is Holtz making the right decision based upon the numbers?

The Analytics

A quick glance at PFF will tell you Matt Corral has a higher passing grade than Martinez, though it’s important to note Corral has roughly 200 fewer dropbacks. Lately, perhaps the two biggest problems for Martinez have been the aforementioned sacks (often the quarterback’s fault) and turnover-worthy plays. Including the playoffs, PFF has Martinez with 2.4% of his passes as turnover worthy, compared with Corral’s 1.0%.

What sets Martinez apart is his rushing. Including the playoffs, Martinez is averaging nine yards per carry, compared with 6.2 for Corral. Combining these two parts of the game is why I have highlighted Total Adjusted Net Yards throughout much of this season. Martinez’s rushing ability has helped place him at the top of all reputable UFL quarterback power rankings for much of the season. However, by including Corral’s playoff performance and lowering the minimum threshold to qualify to be on these lists:

Corral’s passing advantage over Martinez has made him a slightly more efficient quarterback overall, when accounting for the lack of playing time.

However, this difference is not stark enough to make it an obvious decision for Skip Holtz. Continuity and lockerroom morale may be more than enough to overcome this overall difference.

The UFL Championship Game

There’s also the matter of the matchup against the San Antonio Brahmas, arguably the best defense in the UFL. However, this group is slightly weaker against the run versus the pass. It’s more of a compliment to the pass rush and ability to produce coverage sacks.

Still, Martinez was able to gash the Brahmas for 11.2 rushing yards per tote in their last meeting just a few weeks ago. Martinez has more scrambles than any quarterback in the UFL, so it may be safe to expect him to take off frequently. Though not adjusted for score, the Brahmas are in the middle of the league in rush attempts faced. Because of the solid run blocking by this Stallions’ offensive line, expect more attempts on the ground, leading to the typical lower score for a San Antonio game. Right away, consider going under the total of 41.5 at FanDuel. As for the spread, my numbers say it should be Birmingham -2.5, so back San Antonio +3.5. Lastly, just for fun, I would consider betting Jace Sternberger anytime TD at +280. Assuming the Stallions make enough trips to the red zone, the Brahmas should allow underneath routes to force eventual goal-to-go passes. That approach will mean one-on-one matchups that could prove favorable for the Birmingham tight end.

But back to the quarterbacks: good arguments can be made for either player. Perhaps Skip Holtz deserves the benefit of the doubt choosing Martinez, given the coach’s knowledge of his team and his championship pedigree. Regardless, it’s a good problem to have.