Ranking the Top UFL Quarterbacks
How I Determine the Best and Worst with Limited Data
Forgive me if I’m still wiping the egg from my face after my best bet last week went horribly wrong. One of my trains of thought was that because there has been some sloppy offensive play throughout the season, those who can cause takeaways could be even more impactful. The Defenders’ defensive line has been about as formidable as unit creating such havoc plays. Alas, as any good football data scientist can tell you, offense is more stable from week to week and season to season than defense. DC had few answers for quarterback Bryce Perkins (13/18 for 188 yards and 2 TD) or running back Toa Taua (19 carries for 94 yards and 1 TD).
This result segueways to this week’s conversation about quarterbacks. Last season, I explored the challenges of power ranking UFL quarterbacks without advanced data. As with any league, the goal is to combine a gunslinger’s passing ability with his rushing skills into one easy-to-understand rating. The solutions settled upon were a combination of adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) and rushing yards with heavy penalties for sacks and fumbles. As one reddit user suggested, it’s called “True Adjusted Net Yards”. Here’s where all qualifying quarterbacks stand after six games:
It turns out, going against Perkins was a dubious move, no matter what my overall model suggested. Not only is he the league’s most efficient passer, his rushing ability should also be respected. Maybe his experience with the Los Angeles Rams always gave him a foundation for success.
Next, using the aforementioned formula combining both components, here are how these quarterbacks have faired after Week 6:
It’s easy to see why Michigan is atop my power rankings: the play at quarterback. Perkins deserves to be in a tier of his own, having earned the highest adjusted completion percentage by PFF, which accounts for aimed passes which are thrown on target. He’s also earned the highest rushing grade among all quarterbacks.
The second tier of UFL quarterbacks also has a party of one: DC’s Jordan Ta’amu. His speciality is explosives, with the highest average depth of target of 12.8 yards and four touchdown passes of at least 30 yards. At this point, it would be challenging to fade Ta’amu or Perkins in most any matchup.
After that, no quarterback has separated himself from the rest of the pack. Here is where we might find betting value. While it may seem like we are waiting for the Birmingham Stallions to become the world beaters we’ve grown accustomed to seeing, it’s possible the injuries at quarterback have made the dream nearly impossible. Case Cookus has still performed admirably and connecting with receiving Deon Cain has given Birmingham life, but being a 5.5-point favorite may have more to do with reputation than reality. Meanwhile, Houston’s Jalan McClendon has the highest completion percentage on throws without play action, so quick strikes or plays when natural under pressure may still be successful.
I’m backing Houston +5.5 this week.