How Seriously Should We Take Ashton Jeanty's Heisman Campaign?

He's Been Among the Favorites Since the Start of October

34 years ago was the last time a player from a non-major conference won the Heisman Trophy (BYU’s Ty Detmer). It was also 2015 when we saw a running back earn college football’s highest honor (Alabama’s Derrick Henry).

Could we really see both streaks end in one fell swoop?

It’s not just that Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty has been performing at a higher level compared with other running backs. He’s amassed more than 200 additional rushing yards than any other player, averaged nearly 10 yards per tote (2nd in the country) and scored 17 touchdowns on the ground (tied for 2nd in the nation). There’s also an aggressiveness to his running, having earned a couple hundred more yards after contact than any other back, per PFF:

Though we are dealing with small sample sizes, having a sizable lead in rushing yards after contact may be predictive. Derrick Henry led Leonard Fournette by nearly 250 yards when he captured his Heisman. No other running back since has had that kind of a lead in this stat, until now. Intuitively, it make sense yards after contact matters when you think about what voters are most impressed with and what makes for the best highlight reel that isolates the ability of the running back and not his offensive line and blockers.

But perhaps the bigger argument for Jeanty is he’s also accomplishing all of these things at a time when no one quarterback has stood out so far.

In the last six seasons when a quarterback won the Heisman, here is the lead in total EPA they had over second place (including passing and rushing):

It’s worth noting: Bryce Young did not finish as the EPA leader in 2021, trailing first place C.J. Stroud. Still, when there is a season when there isn’t a clear-cut standout at running back or wide receiver, total EPA is a reliable statistic for who will win the Heisman.

This year, Miami’s Cam Ward leads all other quarterbacks with more than 30 expected points added over Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke, who is not playing this weekend because of an injured thumb. Ward has slightly longer odds than Jeanty, but Ward also has the advantage of playing for an undefeated team that is guaranteed a bye in the first round of the College Football Playoff if they win out. That argument is likely more compelling for voters than anything Jeanty can do the rest of the season.

To answer the overarching question, absolutely you should take Jeanty’s Heisman campaign seriously, he’s an exceptional running back. But, Cam Ward may have the better argument in December and does have history on his side. Ward is the better bet for now.